• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1881

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 21 21:26:23 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212126
    SPC MCD 212125=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1881
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0425 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

    Areas affected...northeast OH...far western PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 212125Z - 212330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...The tornado risk will likely continue for another hour or
    so (thru 600-630 pm EDT) and decrease towards sunset and likely be
    very limited after sunset.

    DISCUSSION...Radar imagery from Cleveland's 88D shows a broken band
    of supercells immediately ahead of a strong mid-level vorticity
    maximum moving east across the southern Great Lakes. Surface
    temperatures have warmed into the low-mid 60s with dewpoints near 60
    F. RAP forecast soundings indicate 100-250 J/kg MLCAPE with a
    relatively straight hodograph yielding 150-225 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH.=20
    The current expectation is for a continuation of the tornado risk
    for the next hour or so given the sufficient buoyancy in place
    across northeast OH. However, as the boundary layer begins to cool
    this evening towards sunset and temperatures fall into the 60-62 deg
    range, storm-scale rotation will gradually become more intermittent
    and less intense. The tornado risk will correspondingly lessen as
    supercell rotation weakens. The tornado risk will further diminish
    after sunset as cooling further increases convective inhibition and
    supercell rotation becomes more marginalized.

    ..Smith/Dial.. 10/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pjhrMaHdvkixOwPpyHIu-V6C4TzseEX9JpL-xI2LofDzdMkSkyQWTcp_1noPUN-GSTsIti2b$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40878149 41618112 41758020 41168008 40248090 40088214

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