• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1880

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 21 20:25:16 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 212025
    SPC MCD 212024=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1880
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0324 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of far west TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 212024Z - 212300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of producing occasional gusty
    winds and hail should continue through the rest of the afternoon.
    Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A few storms have developed this afternoon over the
    Davis Mountains and vicinity in far west TX. This region remains
    displaced to the south of stronger mid-level flow across the
    northern/central CONUS. Still, there is modest veering/strengthening
    of the wind field with height through mid levels per recent VWPs
    from KMAF. Around 20-25 kt of deep-layer shear should help foster
    occasional storm organization. The presence of steep mid-level lapse
    rates observed on the 12Z MAF sounding suggests some threat for
    isolated marginally severe hail with the strongest storms. Diurnal
    heating of the boundary layer has also steepened low-level lapse
    rates, and occasional strong to severe downdraft winds may also
    occur as the cores collapse. With a lack of stronger flow aloft,
    storm motions should remain rather slow, with the overall severe
    threat likely remaining quite isolated this afternoon. Therefore,
    watch issuance is not expected.

    ..Gleason/Bunting.. 10/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!q5Izpaa6FmfxXxs3tytcnnFLRKiGFG9V3SxDsf55C2oYanfOnG86GD9D0CGvG9z32Kh-4dAR$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 30520459 30910411 31050357 30590277 30060280 29600321
    29640398 29870444 30150464 30520459=20

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