• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1879

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 21 19:51:20 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 211951
    SPC MCD 211950=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1879
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0250 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern KY...middle/eastern
    TN...far southwestern VA...northern AL...and far northwestern GA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 211950Z - 212215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated wind damage threat with strong storms may
    persist through the afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...Low-topped convection with occasional embedded
    lightning continues to gradually increase in coverage along/ahead of
    a cold front from central/eastern KY across the TN Valley. Broken
    cloud cover and poor mid-level lapse rates are limiting instability,
    with around 500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE present per latest mesoanalysis
    estimates. Area VWPs show low-level winds veered to a generally west-southwesterly component, which is limiting convergence along
    the front. Even so, these winds do quickly strengthen with height in
    the 0-3 km layer owing to the presence of a mid/upper-level trough
    over the OH Valley. About 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear should
    support some updraft organization, with both cells and small
    clusters possible. As filtered diurnal heating continues through the
    remainder of the afternoon, modest steepening of low-level lapse
    rates may support efficient momentum transfer within convective
    downdrafts. Isolated strong to damaging winds of 40-60 mph should be
    the main threat with the developing convection for at least the next
    few hours. Regardless, the overall severe risk should be tempered by
    the marginal thermodynamic environment, and watch issuance appears
    unlikely at this time.

    ..Gleason/Bunting.. 10/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vpIJY3ZPEEvKL5hV57epzr4asnGNMx6mchmAbA4UHc1jcA1o-cEHkl0jSvA7YI67Q3RxUCuG$=
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    LAT...LON 34308582 34058699 33948813 34898807 35828666 36348585
    36918504 37298437 37668412 38538379 38298284 37588232
    37048222 36378271 35628374 34638512 34308582=20

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