• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1878

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 21 18:40:18 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 211840
    SPC MCD 211839=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1878
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0139 PM CDT Thu Oct 21 2021

    Areas affected...northern Ohio...western Pennsylvania and New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 211839Z - 212145Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms are likely to increase along the cold front in
    Ohio, and may pose a marginal wind/small hail risk eastward into
    western Pennsylvania and New York.

    DISCUSSION...A potent shortwave trough continues to move rapidly
    east across MI with a cold front from north-central OH into northern
    KY. Substantial cloud cover currently exists over eastern OH and
    western PA/NY, but limited heating earlier has warmed the boundary
    layer somewhat. Still, instability is quite limited.

    Evident on visible imagery is a plume of steeper low-level lapse
    rates just ahead of the front from central KY into southwest/central
    OH. Here, cold air aloft will continue to overspread the region,
    aiding destabilization. MUCAPE on the order of 500-750 J/kg is
    likely, and additional clearing may occur later today farther east.

    Radar shows cells becoming more numerous along the OH portion of the
    front, and this trend is expected to continue across northern OH
    this afternoon. Given the cellular storm model, small hail will be
    possible. Strong deep-layer shear may also support fast storm
    movement with isolated strong gusts. A severe gust will be possible
    with the strongest cells.

    Further, a supercell is possible after 21Z and perhaps closer to
    00Z, as low-level shear increases over eastern OH, western PA and
    western NY, with effective values of 160-200 m2/s2. Trends in
    boundary-layer destabilization will need to be monitored through

    ..Jewell/Bunting.. 10/21/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sAVo7DLT4_BUGSdNwz0USbcUde59C-V_cYq2vQdGgAq9ryI-4jW5TnKK8-ZfEwNPi5kW90IL$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40597972 40138008 39498063 38978136 38468232 38428286
    38618368 38838384 39698307 40828248 41828190 42058172
    42278130 42408022 42747929 43087912 43217899 43197872
    43067868 42487868 41417915 40597972=20

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