• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1877

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 20 12:39:42 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 201239
    SPC MCD 201239=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1877
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0739 AM CDT Wed Oct 20 2021

    Areas affected...southwest MN into northwest IA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 201239Z - 201415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong thunderstorms may produce marginally
    severe hail this morning.

    DISCUSSION...Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms are ongoing
    this morning near a surface low over western IA/MN in an area of low
    level warm advection ahead of an upper trough and surface cold
    front. While instability will remain weak across the region given a
    cool surface temperatures and modest boundary-layer moisture, steep
    midlevel lapse rates greater than 7.5 C/km are in place over the
    region amid favorable effective shear. This should continue to
    support briefly organized clusters/cells this morning. The strongest
    cells may produce isolated hail stones up to 1 inch in diameter. The
    overall severe threat is expected to remain limited and a watch is
    not expected.

    ..Leitman/Guyer.. 10/20/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qdSfaZqjp_vBY3qlREHSAKbc3tFC3g9NnAXVlx25sVIQqSl4iO-onpl-MksxpYVsZHhIABxc$=
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    LAT...LON 44139648 44199618 44159500 43909437 43479393 43049388
    42669401 42409421 42319448 42319533 42549630 42649661
    43449664 43909662 44139648=20

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