• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1875

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 17 03:22:02 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 170321
    SPC MCD 170321=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1875
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1021 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

    Areas affected...southeast MA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 170321Z - 170415Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Localized damaging gusts cannot be ruled out. The
    expected coverage and magnitude of the potential severe risk will
    preclude a severe thunderstorm watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...A cold front continues to progress eastward across
    southern New England. A frontal-forced convective band has
    developed over RI and is moving east-northeastward into southeastern
    MA. With the negatively tilted mid-upper trough over the region,
    expecting at least a maintenance of convection due in large part to
    strong forcing for ascent. Buoyancy will remain scant but downdraft
    potential in the form of stronger gusts is not entirely out of the
    question. As a result, some limited risk for a damaging gust could materialize, especially if convection intensifies.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 10/17/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!orCuAGr9pO4XQMGzC8338DgDBGEU23Ez6VHEAkK14dK74AV_ZNNwQcrcpHHagMswyksYVoT3$=
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    LAT...LON 42087123 42347096 42297067 41947054 41547084 41387141

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