• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1872

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 16 17:51:28 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161751
    SPC MCD 161750=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1872
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1250 PM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

    Areas affected...Southeastern PA...Eastern MD...NJ...DE

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161750Z - 161945Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Line of showers and thunderstorms moving into eastern
    PA/MD may produce a few damaging wind gusts as it continues eastward
    over the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...A modest increase in reflectivity has been noted within
    the showers/deeper convection along the leading edge of the cold
    front moving through the region over the past half hour or so. The
    downstream air mass has heated into the upper 70s/low 80s amid mid
    60s dewpoints. As a result, a modest increase in buoyancy has
    occurred, with mesoanalysis estimated MLCAPE around 250 J/kg from
    eastern MD northward to the northern PA/NJ border vicinity. This
    region is displaced south of the better forcing for ascent and
    stronger flow aloft. However, enhanced low-level flow (sampled well
    by the DOX and DIX VAD profiles) still appears strong enough to
    support a damaging wind threat with any deeper, more persistent
    cells. Uncertainty regarding overall coverage of strong storms
    precludes higher watch probability, but convective trends will be
    monitored closely.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 10/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!ov04Z4O6JNkGVbEVFFV7XVR0lC2H1p_HEV-nU-Y5lYQ25dPBDB8Ul3vXCUvrM7TLPjJvtB6m$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40487634 41027584 41027453 40397453 38917547 38777721
    39907655 40487634=20

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