• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1871

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 16 16:10:29 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161610
    SPC MCD 161609=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1871
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1109 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

    Areas affected...Northeast NY...Western VT...Far Western MA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 161609Z - 161815Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A narrow line of storms is expected to develop and move east-northeastward this afternoon across northeast NY into western
    VT and far western MA. Damaging wind gusts and a couple of brief
    tornadoes are possible.

    DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms moving across northern NY
    have shown a gradual strengthening trend over the past hour or so.
    At the same time the downstream air mass across northeast NY and
    adjacent western VT/far western MA continues to warm and
    destabilize. Low-level southerly flow has also been strengthening
    during this time (sampled well by the CXX VAD). Poor lapse rates
    should keep buoyancy modest, but the strong forcing for ascent and
    favorable vertical shear will still likely result in a narrow
    convective line capable of damaging wind gusts and perhaps even a
    tornado or two. The tornado threat appears to be relatively greater
    across in the NY/VT border vicinity where temperatures have climbed
    into the low/mid 70s amid mid 60s dewpoints. One or more watches
    (including the potential for a tornado watch along the NY/VT border)
    will likely be needed soon to address this developing severe threat.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 10/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!szAoK_AmAgKOF32VTFg634uiKMCBzBMMKxENkP-8jhTf4zrFzTQ5FT-m6LDm3reFT3vZpEd2$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 44247456 44857404 44987321 44277272 42177307 42517496

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