• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1870

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 16 15:06:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 161506
    SPC MCD 161506=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1870
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1006 AM CDT Sat Oct 16 2021

    Areas affected...Central/Eastern PA...South-Central NY

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 161506Z - 161700Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...A narrow line of stronger storms is expected to move
    northeastward into more of eastern PA and south-central NY over the
    next few hours. Convective trends will be monitored for possible
    watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar trends show increasing reflectivity within
    the line of showers and thunderstorms just ahead of the front in
    central PA. Recent lightning data shows an increasing trend in
    flashes within this line as well. This matches forecast expectations
    with storms expected to gradual strengthen amid continued lift along
    the front, increasing large-scale forcing for ascent, and modest
    diurnal destabilization.=20

    Low to mid-level flow is also strengthening across the region, shown
    well by the BGM VAD, which recently sampled 45-50 kt at 1 km AGL
    increasing to 60 kt between 2-3 km AGL. The resulting vertical
    profile had 0-1 km bulk shear around 35 kt and 0-1 km storm-relative
    helicity near 250 m2/s2.=20

    The resulting combination of ascent, modest buoyancy, and strong
    vertical shear is forecast to result in a narrow line of deeper
    convection capable of producing damaging wind gusts and maybe even a
    brief embedded tornado or two as it moves northeastward.

    ..Mosier/Grams.. 10/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oyJ7O9bwtuK7_8EFJSnrACLN6xV1b_HuUSITKbh865_pJj6XFCtIBj13B1fHxe21B0uhuaCw$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41547731 42467639 43167557 42797445 41897459 39917606
    40107789 41547731=20

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