• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1868

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 16 02:45:27 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 160245
    SPC MCD 160244=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1868
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0944 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

    Areas affected...northern and northeast KY...southwest and southern

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 160244Z - 160445Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated damaging gusts are possible tonight owing to
    organized thunderstorms episodically intensifying in a moist, weakly
    unstable, but strong deep-layer shear environment.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a couple of thunderstorm clusters
    over southeastern IN and central KY as of 0240z. This activity is
    located on/near the cold front. Water-vapor imagery shows a
    mid-level vorticity maximum located over the Ozarks this evening,
    and this feature will continue to approach the OH Valley tonight as
    large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening mid- to high-level
    flow overspread the region.=20=20

    The 00z Wilmington, OH raob showed a moist boundary layer but poor
    lapse rates and only meager MUCAPE (200 J/kg). It was noted that
    recent RAP forecast soundings appeared too aggressive with MUCAPE
    for southwest OH compared to the 00z raob and SPC mesoanalysis.=20
    While it seems probable that this activity will be somewhat limited
    in overall intensity, an isolated risk for damaging gusts could
    develop with any more organized/persistent storm structures late
    this evening into the early overnight.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 10/16/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p74H7KakA-czfTk5LFhRB00kQxUE1UR7VzXfi0n9_Uz5cnsm5OVEMYTKTnuMg3r_LhOZm3SY$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39018492 39638343 39578266 38968225 38128282 37828420
    37588499 38118526 39018492=20

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