• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1867

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 15 22:07:26 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 152207
    SPC MCD 152206=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1867
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0506 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

    Areas affected...northern MS...southwest TN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 152206Z - 160000Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Forecast soundings show hodographs enlarging over the next
    2-3 hours between 5pm to 7-8pm. An isolated risk for a tornado may
    accompany the stronger storms. The threat for damaging gusts will
    likely concentrate near the RFD of any supercells or downdraft
    surges with bowing segments.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a linear cluster of storms over
    eastern AR expected to cross the MS River over the next 1-2 hours.=20
    Surface temperatures have warmed into the lower 80s near Memphis and
    cooler rain-cooled air (low to mid 70s F) is located over northern

    KNQA (Memphis, TN) WSR-88D VAD shows a largely unidirectional
    southwesterly wind profile with flow increasing with height to
    around 60 kt at 6 km AGL. Both RAP and NAM forecast soundings
    indicate the hodograph size will increase over the next few hours as
    flow strengthens in the boundary layer and 700-mb flow increases
    from 25 kt as of 5pm CDT to 35-40 kt by 7-8pm CDT. As large-scale
    forcing for ascent strengthens with the approach of the mid-upper
    trough, expecting a severe risk to continue to the east and
    southeast of severe thunderstorm watch #527 (into parts of northern
    MS). Damaging gusts will be the primary concern with the stronger
    storms but a tornado threat may increase coincident with the
    hodograph enlargement.

    ..Smith/Guyer.. 10/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!u_wPLUVFRj39QdJAtJtXfwu_5eYZXfsmeGiu5-acA-QBIUV4d5e5kNofJ0hz5HNJgIlijfFo$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34779056 35718951 35688801 34918807 34388868 34289033

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