• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1866

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 15 19:53:31 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151953
    SPC MCD 151952=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1866
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0252 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

    Areas affected...Arkansas into western Kentucky and Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527...

    Valid 151952Z - 152145Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 527

    SUMMARY...Scattered damaging gusts and brief periods of hail remain
    possible. The threat may eventually spread east of WW 527 and
    farther into Kentucky/Tennessee.

    DISCUSSION...Several strong to occasionally severe storms have
    formed along the front in central AR, beneath strong, front-parallel
    deep shear. Gradual destabilization has taken place with heating
    ahead of the front, with MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg common at 20Z.
    Other storms were also evident over western KY and TN where theta-e
    continues to increase with southwest surface winds.

    Low-level shear remains weak, resulting in long, straight
    hodographs. The primary result should be forward-tilted storms with straight-line wind potential, as well as marginally severe hail.=20

    However, later this evening, 850 mb flow is forecast to increase
    ahead of the front into parts of TN and KY, and a brief tornado may
    become more likely at that time, dependent on an unstable boundary
    layer. As such, additional watches could become necessary downstream
    of WW 527 later today.

    ..Jewell.. 10/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rVYc6Al5Sf1fiqM0QSgstXXOblT5k3wh_2EuV5kzTDJLQ6cYdyQoY2dsTjYtp3hjFOyI8Vrw$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 37108810 37248765 37078733 36728718 36128712 35778727
    35368822 33749288 33839327 34139345 34529337 34999282
    35929132 37108810=20

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