• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1865

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 15 17:59:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151759
    SPC MCD 151759=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1865
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1259 PM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

    Areas affected...northern Ohio...far northwest Pennsylvania and far
    western New York

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 151759Z - 151930Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to undergo an increase in
    coverage and intensity during the next couple of hours. Isolated
    damaging wind should be the main threat, but some hail and a brief
    tornado cannot be ruled out. Trends will continue to be monitored
    for a possible watch.

    DISCUSSION...Showers and a few thunderstorms are in the process of
    developing just east of a surface low in northwest OH and farther
    east in vicinity of a warm front across northern into far northwest
    PA. The warm sector has undergone some destabilization as
    temperatures warm through the 70s to near 80 F, but widespread
    clouds are slowing this process, and weak mid-level lapse rates
    should limit MLCAPE to near or below 1200 J/kg. Effective bulk shear
    from 35-40 kt will support some organized storm structures,
    including potential for a few rotating updrafts and linear segments
    with isolated damaging wind the main threat. Through a brief tornado
    cannot be ruled out, low-level hodographs will remain relatively
    small which should mitigate the overall tornado threat. Limiting
    factor for a more robust severe thunderstorm threat is the somewhat
    marginal thermodynamic environment, but trends will continue to be
    monitored for signs of storm organization and a possible WW.

    ..Dial/Grams.. 10/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rXq855v0gxcrPbIZWFzJTRoXTBECd0G1FPXIJET0Da6eJ0sIHKpbELVruHx9WTfKYUoaUSyz$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42317947 41437987 40638147 40538275 40848357 41398317
    41838157 42317947=20

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