• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1864

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 15 16:36:54 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151636
    SPC MCD 151636=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1864
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1136 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central PA

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 151636Z - 151800Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated storms capable of hail and locally damaging wind
    are possible into early afternoon.

    DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster is moving across parts of western/central PA as of 1630Z, with the southernmost storm in the
    cluster displaying some supercell characteristics. This activity is
    likely being driven by a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough
    moving across the lower Great Lakes and an associated weak low-level
    warm advection regime. VWPs from PBZ and CTP show relatively weak
    low-level flow, with only modestly favorable midlevel flow noted
    from the CTP VWP, so ongoing activity may tend to weaken with time
    as it moves eastward into a generally less unstable environment, and
    watch issuance is not anticipated in the short term.=20

    Later this afternoon, additional storms may develop across a larger
    portion of the region, within a gradually improving CAPE/shear
    parameter space, so some severe threat will persist across the area
    in the wake of the ongoing activity.

    ..Dean/Grams.. 10/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qMhoTkvK3F5WbTg7KwVUfoaskFdVJoQ4japsHSYVX9LDrFaEfVwsgtxibxLPC39n0vZz0LLa$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40877931 41217949 41517946 41697908 41727851 41617797
    41507777 41177765 41007767 40767785 40707796 40587832
    40587878 40877931=20

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