• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1863

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 15 16:15:24 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 151615
    SPC MCD 151614=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1863
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1114 AM CDT Fri Oct 15 2021

    Areas affected...central and northeast Arkansas into far western
    Kentucky and Tennessee

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 151614Z - 151845Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms, some possibly severe producing damaging
    gusts, are expected to develop over the next few hours from Arkansas
    into western Kentucky and Tennessee.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a cold front from northern AR
    into southern IL and IN, with 68-72 F dewpoints ahead of it. Gradual
    height falls will continue over the region as the shortwave trough
    moves toward the MS Valley, as pockets of heating aid

    Objective analysis and modified forecast sounding indicate around
    1000 J/kg MLCAPE over AR, with lesser values farther northeast. The
    12Z LZK sounding shows a prominent midlevel inversion, which is
    lessening instability. The SGF and ILX soundings also show this
    midlevel warm layer.

    Despite the marginal instability, strong deep-layer shear is in
    place, resulting in primarily long, straight hodographs. Lift along
    the front will prove sufficient to support increasing storm
    coverage, and forward-tilted storms with motions over 35 kt will
    lead to favorable storm-relative inflow. As such, at least a few
    severe cells and/or bows are expected, producing damaging wind
    gusts. Hail may also occur, though not particularly large due to the
    limited instability.

    ..Jewell/Grams.. 10/15/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tlMYyJ2yVbTEteVbR8P-arGsyUlhaQkvnxxCuW0h1PQExfncpYoxG3EsUQvMV6P_NcaZ9yQ6$=
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    LAT...LON 35099280 35419210 35759142 36499056 36898994 37368903
    37308864 36958847 36468859 34888994 34219049 33949123
    33989237 34229283 34689289 35099280=20

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