• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1860

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 14 20:50:21 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 142050
    SPC MCD 142049=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1860
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0349 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

    Areas affected...portions of northern IN

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 142049Z - 142215Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered storms may undergo brief intensification with a
    risk for isolated damaging wind gusts into this evening. Given
    expected sparse severe coverage, a watch is not likely.

    DISCUSSION...As of 2030 UTC, regional radar imagery showed a cluster
    of thunderstorms ongoing along a cold front across west-central IN.
    Ahead of the front, weak destabilization (500-1000 J/kg of MLCAPE)
    from cloud breaks may support a brief uptick in convective intensity
    over the next couple of hours. Regional model soundings show
    deep-layer shear profiles remain relatively strong around 40-50 kts.
    Shear remains mostly parallel to the cold front, supporting a linear
    mode behind the wind shift. However, the southern most sections of
    the cluster, including a weakly rotating cell over Parke County, IN,
    appear to be ahead of the cooler air suggesting relatively greater
    potential for damaging wind gusts. Overall hi-res guidance remains
    uncertain on convective evolution casting considerable doubt on the
    coverage of any severe weather. However, given the strong shear and
    sufficient buoyancy, a few isolated damaging wind gusts cannot be
    ruled out.

    ..Lyons/Dial.. 10/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!oHg7QKtCod67x74sJyCO9tysHSojoVTJzdA2CrYy-3ZE98ZI0uy4rS7HW540xdc31micMPJh$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40708499 40008597 39488677 39268739 39428760 39748755
    40128734 40768661 41668527 41728490 41298477 40708499=20

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