• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1859

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 14 20:46:49 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 142046
    SPC MCD 142046=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1859
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0346 PM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

    Areas affected...northern Arkansas into southeast Missouri and
    southern Illinois

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 142046Z - 142245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...A few strong storms are possible from northern Arkansas
    into southeast Missouri/southern Illinois with gusty winds the most
    likely threat.

    DISCUSSION...Storms have slowly increased over northern AR near a
    diffuse front, with modest instability along the ahead of the
    boundary. This front is situated roughly parallel to the winds
    aloft, suggesting storms may track along it over the next several

    Effective SRH is generally weak, but deep-layer shear is favorable
    at 35-40 kt to sustain a few longer-lived storms given the moist
    environment. Weak cyclonic shear has been noted recently on the AR
    activity, and while tornadoes are not expected, could aid gusty wind

    ..Jewell/Dial.. 10/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!puMmiK4FTNU2WJUTGnAIcAN4NVbERKTTRn6ez-Pyc8ZJzAaP81wq0StS1HmXd3A6L5M5LrVe$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 37128895 36558922 36058990 35849049 35499135 35279210
    35249284 35399301 35569304 35829296 36189263 37399082
    37679023 37738988 37658945 37398915 37128895=20

    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1634244415-119248-96--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)