• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1858

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Thu Oct 14 08:22:47 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 140822
    SPC MCD 140822=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1858
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0322 AM CDT Thu Oct 14 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/coastal TX

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 140822Z - 141045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe risk may persist for a couple of hours
    early this morning. Watch issuance is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...A supercell on the southern flank of a large area of
    precipitation has shown recent signs of low-level rotation. Although
    a southerly low-level jet across central/coastal TX remains fairly
    modest (20-25 kt), there is some enhancement to flow in the 0-1-km
    layer. Around 200 m2/s2 of 0-1-km SRH is present per the KCRP VWP,
    which is enough for modest storm organization and the low-level
    rotation which has been observed. Strong/gusty winds and perhaps a
    brief tornado may occur in the short term with the ongoing
    supercell. Less clear is the prospect for continued storm
    organization early this morning. A weak impulse embedded within the
    large-scale upper trough encompassing much of the western and
    central CONUS should slowly depart this region as it overspreads the
    ArkLaTex and lower MS Valley. The southerly low-level jet is also
    forecast to gradually diminish through the morning as well. Given
    the lack of stronger large-scale forcing and a marginal
    thermodynamic environment, the potential for sustained/organized
    severe storms appears relatively low. Accordingly, watch issuance is
    not expected early this morning.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 10/14/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tV8SwdIqIGzOSFPk1NcGRLPJB5jA_TXN8_NVHxvjYg2dEVq4XAMOmdIfKclST9e39AY045a6$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 29609796 29559733 29879643 29629618 29349628 29099685
    28849775 29199820 29609796=20

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