• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1856

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 13 23:47:13 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132347
    SPC MCD 132346=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1856
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0646 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

    Areas affected...Western Minnesota

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132346Z - 140045Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...New thunderstorms developing across west-central Minnesota
    may pose a brief/weak tornado threat for the next hour, but the
    overall threat will remain too limited to warrant a watch issuance.

    DISCUSSION...Latest radar imagery shows new thunderstorm development
    across parts of west-central MN over the past 30-60 minutes. While
    instability continues to wane amid diurnal cooling, RAP forecast
    sounding hint that instability remains sufficient (around 250-500
    J/kg MLCAPE) to support convection rooted in the boundary layer. VWP observations from KMPX show 250-300 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH over the
    region, which is supports recent Mesoanalysis estimates of 200 m2/s2
    effective SRH ahead of the line. Furthermore, surface vorticity
    remains elevated along the frontal boundary, and 0-3 km MLCAPE
    values between 100-125 J/kg are noted in recent Mesoanalysis.
    Consequently, a weak/brief tornado remains possible with this
    convection. Given the onset of diurnal cooling and diminishing
    instability, this threat will not likely persist beyond 01Z and a
    watch is not expected.

    ..Moore/Guyer.. 10/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uYBdnTWijJS400IrR5AOg3_mUSOj2-C87Z89zpKBoaOsjoAEgAURPfKqwBdhvDrnfLpat5Gx$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 46559537 47039622 47259646 47649642 47799603 47709547
    47559516 47379485 47029455 46709428 46289405 45919396
    45659399 45709428 46049468 46159494 46559537=20

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