• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1855

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 13 20:59:44 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 132059
    SPC MCD 132059=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1855
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0359 PM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

    Areas affected...portions of North Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 132059Z - 132230Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Storms may pose a risk for isolated damaging wind gusts or
    hail into this evening. A watch is not anticipated.

    DISCUSSION...Late afternoon radar imagery showed widespread showers
    and thunderstorms ongoing across North Texas near a slow moving cold
    front. Likely elevated given their position behind the surface
    front, these storms are being supported by weak destabilization,
    with SPC mesoanalysis showing 500-1000 J/kg of MUCAPE. Effective
    shear remains relatively strong (40-50 kts) beneath a southwesterly
    mid-level jet. This suggests some potential for organized multicells
    and or an elevated supercell. Isolated hail and or a strong wind
    gusts cannot be ruled out into this evening. The primarily
    mitigating factor will be the limited and elevated nature of the
    buoyancy. Given uncertainty on storm evolution and expected low-end
    risk, a weather watch is not likely needed.

    ..Lyons/Mosier.. 10/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pvrr6ohuJiEYAFlAT2GqIQMs0ySCzdvxbTL1jqUPg5Q3WZ9hnXuZ64_-feOA-zge2PwlLr-n$=
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    LAT...LON 31759883 31619923 31749938 32019939 32369921 33009885
    33439808 33639754 33659686 33499662 33119655 32739698
    32389759 32089809 31829870 31759883=20

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