• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1853

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 13 12:35:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 131235
    SPC MCD 131234=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1853
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0734 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern OK...far eastern
    KS...extreme northwestern AR...and western/central MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 131234Z - 131430Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe storms are possible this
    morning. Watch issuance is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...A line of storms continues to progress eastward this
    morning from parts of central into northeastern OK, southeastern KS,
    and western MO. The airmass ahead of this activity is only weakly
    unstable, with up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE present. But, strong
    low-level and deep-layer shear still exist across the warm sector.
    Occasional strong/gusty winds will remain possible this morning for
    a couple more hours, although recent observations from the OK
    Mesonet and various ASOS in southeastern KS show winds remaining
    well below severe levels. The tornado potential appears a bit more
    limited owing to the 0-1-km bulk shear vector remaining largely
    parallel to the ongoing line of storms. Even so, occasional
    protrusions with weak embedded low-level circulations have recently
    been noted in the line across central OK, and a brief tornado also
    appears possible given the strength of the low-level flow. This line
    should gradually weaken with eastward extent later this morning, and
    the overall severe threat currently appears too isolated/marginal
    for watch issuance.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 10/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rFqEqcgBAyWtI8QUDN_qhYKRl0_ZFJaJXxkLqfCjfZGVCRRdGkRSHUuqzt-EiyIRqGzmWChE$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34989696 36079626 36999546 37769517 38849448 38979423
    38979336 38679278 37339333 36109448 34999607 34799683

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