• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1852

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 13 10:17:41 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 131017
    SPC MCD 131016=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1852
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0516 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern OK and southeastern KS

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 526...

    Valid 131016Z - 131115Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 526 continues.

    SUMMARY...Occasional strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
    tornado may occur with a line of storms in the short term, but
    downstream watch issuance will probably not be needed.

    DISCUSSION...The line of storms moving eastward across
    central/northern OK and southeastern KS has mostly produced
    sub-severe wind gusts over the past couple of hours. This is largely
    due to the influence of a near-surface stable layer limiting
    convective downdraft potential. Still, there is plentiful low-level
    flow per the KTLX VWP, and occasional strong to severe wind gusts
    will remain possible in the short term. Additionally, a low-level
    circulation embedded within the QLCS has recently strengthened over
    the OKC metro. With effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2, a brief
    tornado also appears possible. Regardless of the near-term severe
    potential, the overall threat appears increasingly marginal/isolated
    with eastward extent across OK/KS early this morning. At this point,
    downstream watch issuance does not appear likely.

    ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!prFGmkF-3F6a93N0SdCk43w-FJktYjq_q0moOV9iZc3xDh1GdmN9oDdIrY3ub6sVr3erSA8g$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34889840 35629780 37089681 38059612 37729504 36569548
    35389640 34819737 34759802 34889840=20

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