Mesoscale Discussion 1852
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0516 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021
Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern OK and southeastern KS
Concerning...Tornado Watch 526...
Valid 131016Z - 131115Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 526 continues.
SUMMARY...Occasional strong to severe wind gusts and perhaps a brief
tornado may occur with a line of storms in the short term, but
downstream watch issuance will probably not be needed.
DISCUSSION...The line of storms moving eastward across
central/northern OK and southeastern KS has mostly produced
sub-severe wind gusts over the past couple of hours. This is largely
due to the influence of a near-surface stable layer limiting
convective downdraft potential. Still, there is plentiful low-level
flow per the KTLX VWP, and occasional strong to severe wind gusts
will remain possible in the short term. Additionally, a low-level
circulation embedded within the QLCS has recently strengthened over
the OKC metro. With effective SRH exceeding 400 m2/s2, a brief
tornado also appears possible. Regardless of the near-term severe
potential, the overall threat appears increasingly marginal/isolated
with eastward extent across OK/KS early this morning. At this point,
downstream watch issuance does not appear likely.
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