• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1851

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 13 09:59:11 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130959
    SPC MCD 130958=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1851
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0458 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of eastern WY...the extreme western NE Panhandle...the far western Dakotas...and southeastern into
    east-central MT

    Concerning...Heavy snow=20

    Valid 130958Z - 131600Z

    SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall, with rates around 1-1.5 inches
    per hour, should occur this morning. Near-blizzard conditions are
    also possible with strong/gusty winds.

    DISCUSSION...A mature mid/upper-level cyclone evident on water vapor
    satellite imagery will continue to eject northeastward across the central/northern High Plains this morning. A deformation band on the
    back side of the cyclone is beginning to fill in as low/mid-level
    frontogenetic forcing increases. Current expectations are that a
    mostly north-south oriented band of moderate to heavy snow will
    develop over parts of eastern WY/MT into the western Dakotas over
    the next few hours this morning, and gradually shift northward with
    time. Even though low-level temperatures are marginal (generally
    28-33 degrees F), strong cooling aloft associated with the upper low
    should support snow as the main precipitation type. Lift through the
    saturated dendritic-growth layer and consensus of latest
    high-resolution guidance both suggest snowfall rates of 1-1.5 inches
    per hours will likely be common, with locally greater rates
    possible. Finally, near-blizzard conditions with reduced
    visibilities should also occur across this region, as a strong
    pressure gradient and gusty winds will exist on the back side of a
    surface low that will develop northward from NE into central SD this
    morning. Indeed, blizzard conditions have recently been reported at
    KDGW in eastern WY.

    ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v11mf2d2XfumZsVRPxj0xaGlBWm_7mLSDosmkMah9wig19ii8pSaq9WktAjTIHPch4idDgQG$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42910372 41880397 41810465 42120527 42820597 44540615
    45750611 46820566 47510489 47660416 47460363 46330348
    45170341 44030337 43740364 42910372=20

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