• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1850

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 13 08:27:42 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130827
    SPC MCD 130826=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1850
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of western/northern OK into south-central
    and southeastern KS

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 524...526...

    Valid 130826Z - 131000Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 524, 526 continues.

    SUMMARY...Mainly an isolated strong to severe wind threat continues
    with a line of storms moving eastward.

    DISCUSSION...Observations from the OK Mesonet and other sites in
    OK/KS show that the wind gusts associated with an extensive squall
    line have largely remained sub-severe over the past hour or so, with
    a wind gust to 50 kt at KICT at 0810Z being the exception. While
    there is at least moderate boundary-layer instability ahead of the
    line per mesoanalysis, there is likely also a shallow near-surface
    stable layer which is inhibiting convective downdraft potential to
    some extent. Even so, there is still some chance for occasional
    strong to severe wind gusts to breach this stable layer and reach
    the surface given the strength of the low/mid-level flow present
    across OK/KS. Both low/deep-layer shear vectors are becoming
    oriented increasingly parallel to the squall line (see recent VWPs
    from KFDR, KVNX, and KICT). This should tend to limit the potential
    for low-level circulations embedded within the QLCS, but a brief
    tornado still remains possible given the strength of the low-level
    flow associated with a strong, 50-60+ kt southerly low-level jet.

    ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!p3splbpBXpYm0PifmQWhDBz3ZUhWgVFROBdAqUoFlNFi1uGnU59eH8ZXn4iBYxYLE4GFSH9r$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34539985 34999942 35479907 36169857 36889799 37759754
    38499703 38439640 37029649 35779719 34939813 34399916

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