Mesoscale Discussion 1850
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0326 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021
Areas affected...Portions of western/northern OK into south-central
and southeastern KS
Concerning...Tornado Watch 524...526...
Valid 130826Z - 131000Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 524, 526 continues.
SUMMARY...Mainly an isolated strong to severe wind threat continues
with a line of storms moving eastward.
DISCUSSION...Observations from the OK Mesonet and other sites in
OK/KS show that the wind gusts associated with an extensive squall
line have largely remained sub-severe over the past hour or so, with
a wind gust to 50 kt at KICT at 0810Z being the exception. While
there is at least moderate boundary-layer instability ahead of the
line per mesoanalysis, there is likely also a shallow near-surface
stable layer which is inhibiting convective downdraft potential to
some extent. Even so, there is still some chance for occasional
strong to severe wind gusts to breach this stable layer and reach
the surface given the strength of the low/mid-level flow present
across OK/KS. Both low/deep-layer shear vectors are becoming
oriented increasingly parallel to the squall line (see recent VWPs
from KFDR, KVNX, and KICT). This should tend to limit the potential
for low-level circulations embedded within the QLCS, but a brief
tornado still remains possible given the strength of the low-level
flow associated with a strong, 50-60+ kt southerly low-level jet.
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