• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1849

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 13 07:55:09 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130755
    SPC MCD 130754=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1849
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0254 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of north-central into northeastern KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525...

    Valid 130754Z - 130930Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong/gusty winds remain possible in the short
    term. Downstream watch issuance into more of northeastern Kansas
    appears unlikely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...The northern portion of a squall line has recently
    weakened as it moved from north-central into northeastern KS. This
    is occurring largely due to a less favorable thermodynamic
    environment with eastward extent across northeastern KS. Fairly
    strong MLCIN should continue to temper updraft strength, even though
    low-level warm/moist advection is occurring with a stout, 50-60+ kt
    southerly low-level jet. Recent radar data from KTWX shows some
    strong inbound velocities within the line, and isolated strong/gusty
    winds may continue in the short term even with the marginal
    thermodynamic environment. At this point, it does not appear that
    the warm/moist advection at low levels will be enough to offset the
    nocturnal increase in convective inhibition. Accordingly, the
    overall severe threat should remain rather isolated/marginal, and
    downstream watch issuance appears unlikely at this time.

    ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vsFE-D9R29gTC0jNgnq-Sw_XW4eDYrOnLYiRYWJXjPZjsBZZNeGWe5dkdQWKHnE3ohYxSdRj$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38639728 38959712 39959711 39969625 39419599 38579601

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