• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1847

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 13 06:19:12 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130619
    SPC MCD 130618=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1847
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0118 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of the far eastern TX
    Panhandle...northwest TX...and western OK

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 526...

    Valid 130618Z - 130745Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 526 continues.

    SUMMARY...A broken line of storms capable of producing scattered
    severe wind gusts, isolated large hail, and occasional tornadoes
    will continue into western Oklahoma early this morning.

    DISCUSSION...Strong to severe storms have mostly grown upscale into
    a broken line across the far eastern TX Panhandle and northwestern
    OK along and just ahead of a surface cold front. A rather moist
    low-level airmass is present ahead of this activity, with surface
    dewpoints generally in the upper 60s to around 70F. But, RAP
    forecast soundings from across this area show a shallow near-surface
    stable layer present in low levels, which is contributing to weak
    convective inhibition per latest mesoanalysis estimates. Regardless,
    recent radar data from KVNX show strong inbound velocities
    associated with the segment of the line across far northwestern OK.
    A measured severe wind gust to 60 mph was recorded earlier at the OK
    Mesonet site in Buffalo, OK as the line moved through. Scattered severe/damaging wind gusts will likely remain the primary severe
    threat with the line, as MLCAPE of 1500-2000 J/kg and 50+ kt of
    effective bulk shear will continue to support storm organization and

    Farther south across the far eastern TX Panhandle, a couple of
    supercells are present in a broken line. Isolated large hail will be
    possible with this activity in the short term in addition to severe
    downdraft winds. Given the strength of the low-level flow (55+ kt in
    the 0-1-km layer per recent KFDR VWP) and a very favorable, curving
    hodograph in the boundary layer, occasional tornadoes may occur with
    any supercells that can remain at least semi-discrete, as well as
    with low-level circulations embedded within the QLCS.

    ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!obAAAZQgo3VlBtvSk4oSmehYX_Luf2E5vmOaiszaD31XHHrmtyg0-pZapAQWxef6GgSUubDC$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34980089 35650008 36929936 36959791 36269808 35579848
    35019901 34390005 34130103 34250128 34980089=20

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