Mesoscale Discussion 1846
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021
Areas affected...Portions of north-central KS
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525...
Valid 130554Z - 130730Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525
SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts should remain the
primary threat with storms moving eastward across north-central
Kansas early this morning.
DISCUSSION...A north-south oriented line of storms will continue to
move eastward across north-central KS ahead of a cold front over the
next couple of hours. Recent VWPs from KUEX and KTWX show very
strong flow associated with a southerly low-level jet in the 0-3-km
layer, and 0-1 km shear exceeding 50 kt ahead of the line. Strong
deep-layer shear associated with an upper trough/low ejecting over
the High Plains is also present over this region. Given the strength
of the low-level flow, occasional strong to severe wind gusts from
convective downdrafts should be the main threat with these storms in
the short term. The primary limiting factor for a more robust severe
threat will continue to be the marginal thermodynamic environment.
Surface temperatures in the mid 60s with dewpoints in the mid 50s
are yielding only around 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE along and just ahead
of the line. Convective inhibition also increases markedly into
northeastern KS per latest mesoanalysis estimates. This suggests
storms will probably weaken later this morning with eastward extent
as they outpace the better low-level moisture return occurring
farther south across central/southern KS.
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