• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1846

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 13 05:54:38 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 130554
    SPC MCD 130554=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1846
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1254 AM CDT Wed Oct 13 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of north-central KS

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525...

    Valid 130554Z - 130730Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 525

    SUMMARY...Isolated strong to severe wind gusts should remain the
    primary threat with storms moving eastward across north-central
    Kansas early this morning.

    DISCUSSION...A north-south oriented line of storms will continue to
    move eastward across north-central KS ahead of a cold front over the
    next couple of hours. Recent VWPs from KUEX and KTWX show very
    strong flow associated with a southerly low-level jet in the 0-3-km
    layer, and 0-1 km shear exceeding 50 kt ahead of the line. Strong
    deep-layer shear associated with an upper trough/low ejecting over
    the High Plains is also present over this region. Given the strength
    of the low-level flow, occasional strong to severe wind gusts from
    convective downdrafts should be the main threat with these storms in
    the short term. The primary limiting factor for a more robust severe
    threat will continue to be the marginal thermodynamic environment.
    Surface temperatures in the mid 60s with dewpoints in the mid 50s
    are yielding only around 250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE along and just ahead
    of the line. Convective inhibition also increases markedly into
    northeastern KS per latest mesoanalysis estimates. This suggests
    storms will probably weaken later this morning with eastward extent
    as they outpace the better low-level moisture return occurring
    farther south across central/southern KS.

    ..Gleason.. 10/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sv6t6Z86M5tYcxtBCqeRExeaFBI-8rIPPjfmqmHdzKgLG5qbNYr4ZHReDGQi7U63PZ1c0QL3$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39269837 39929831 39959685 39229688 39269837=20

    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1634104484-54005-2364--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)