• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1844

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 13 02:19:40 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130219
    SPC MCD 130218=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1844
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0918 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

    Areas affected...Western Oklahoma and the eastern Oklahoma and Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 523...

    Valid 130218Z - 130415Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 523 continues.

    SUMMARY...The threat for tornadoes and severe wind continues across
    WW 523. The greatest near-term threats will reside with a pair of
    supercells across western OK, as well as intensifying storms across
    the OK/TX Panhandles.

    DISCUSSION...Vertical wind profilers from across the southern Plains
    have shown strengthening flow in the lowest 2-3 km over the past
    hour as the surface low across the southern/central High Plains
    continues to deepen and the main synoptic wave ejects into the
    Plains. This has boosted effective SRH to around 400 m2/s2 across
    much of WW 523, and aided in the organization and longevity of a
    pair of tornadic supercells across western OK. These two cells will
    continue to pose a tornado threat for the next 1-2 hours, but the
    longevity of the threat is uncertain due to a less favorable
    thermodynamic environment with eastern extent. Additional discrete
    cells ahead of the approaching cold front remain possible, but
    appears unlikely given recent failed attempts at initiation near
    Woodward, OK.

    To the west, convection along the Pacific cold front is intensifying
    as the front encounters a more unstable air mass. Severe winds have
    already been reported with this line across the Panhandles, and will
    continue to be possible as convection continues to intensify over
    the coming hours. Given the strongly sheared environment ahead of
    this line, QLCS tornadoes will also be possible - especially in the
    vicinity of any northwest to southeast surges where line-normal 0-3
    km bulk shear values will be maximized to near 40-45 knots.

    ..Moore.. 10/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rmXriJL-cCfmbZFCoVg-rf_HQqq7AcGQYEwwnKGCfA34Toq25J-NLOjeWld47603iCJCtV-Y$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 34889988 35380065 35990127 36740115 37040086 36989947
    36579857 36369791 35989767 35569766 35179770 34699778
    34409809 34409867 34889988=20

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