• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1843

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Wed Oct 13 01:56:38 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 130156
    SPC MCD 130156=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1843
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0856 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

    Areas affected...central Kansas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 130156Z - 130300Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

    SUMMARY...Line of storms across western KS is expected to persist
    into the overnight through central KS. Damaging wind should be the
    main threat, but at least a couple of tornadoes will also be

    DISCUSSION...Line of storms from just east of Goodland to west of
    Garden City is moving east at around 35 kt. Embedded organized
    structures continue to be observed. Moisture will continue to return
    northward through the downstream warm sector with dewpoints likely
    to rise into the low 60s F across southern KS and 50s farther north.
    Even with this return of low-level moisture, forecast soundings
    indicate a near-surface stable layer, suggesting inflow to the
    storms will probably remain just above the surface. Northward
    destabilization with time with MUCAPE from 1500-2000 J/KG along with
    large low-level hodographs and strong effective shear will continue
    to support embedded organized storms with damaging wind the main
    threat. However, given degree of effective storm relative helicity,
    at least a couple of tornadoes will remain possible, especially over
    the southern half of KS with any embedded supercells or
    meso-vortices despite the sub-optimal near-surface layer.

    ..Dial/Guyer.. 10/13/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tqbsRn19Vo8GYSiGl6_jMquH1UcuIVjioS8e5N1TQSwDsclHE7xZurIYCrbmkvctRGkhawmq$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 37219983 38610012 39829981 39759812 37989800 37199823

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