Mesoscale Discussion 1841
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0622 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021
Areas affected...eastern Colorado through southwest Nebraska and
Concerning...Tornado Watch 522...
Valid 122322Z - 130045Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 522 continues.
SUMMARY...Storms are expected to continue a gradual increase in
intensity next couple hours from northeast CO through southwest NE
and western KS. All severe hazards are possible including tornadoes,
large hail and damaging wind.
DISCUSSION...Early this evening a Pacific cold front is in the
process of overtaking the dryline across eastern CO. A warm front
extends from a surface low in northeast CO, southeast through
western KS. The warm sector is fairly narrow through western KS into
northeast CO, but dewpoints will continue to rise through the 50s F
along the strengthening southerly low-level jet. The VWP data
already indicate 40+ kt southeasterly winds at 1 km. Scattered
storms are developing across western KS along the warm conveyor belt
as well as along the front in northeast CO within a corridor of up
to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. The boundary layer should become more favorable
for tornadoes this evening as dewpoints continue to increase. Large
low-level hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear will support
supercells with low-level mesocyclones. As corridor of deeper ascent
along the cold front begins to overtake greater low-level moisture,
storms should eventually evolve into lines later this evening.
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