• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1841

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 12 23:23:10 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 122323
    SPC MCD 122322=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1841
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0622 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Colorado through southwest Nebraska and
    western Kansas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 522...

    Valid 122322Z - 130045Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 522 continues.

    SUMMARY...Storms are expected to continue a gradual increase in
    intensity next couple hours from northeast CO through southwest NE
    and western KS. All severe hazards are possible including tornadoes,
    large hail and damaging wind.

    DISCUSSION...Early this evening a Pacific cold front is in the
    process of overtaking the dryline across eastern CO. A warm front
    extends from a surface low in northeast CO, southeast through
    western KS. The warm sector is fairly narrow through western KS into
    northeast CO, but dewpoints will continue to rise through the 50s F
    along the strengthening southerly low-level jet. The VWP data
    already indicate 40+ kt southeasterly winds at 1 km. Scattered
    storms are developing across western KS along the warm conveyor belt
    as well as along the front in northeast CO within a corridor of up
    to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. The boundary layer should become more favorable
    for tornadoes this evening as dewpoints continue to increase. Large
    low-level hodographs and 50+ kt effective bulk shear will support
    supercells with low-level mesocyclones. As corridor of deeper ascent
    along the cold front begins to overtake greater low-level moisture,
    storms should eventually evolve into lines later this evening.

    ..Dial.. 10/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r9B9Rl6NF9y4BQUJ_TJCUd0mqgckWrXCdRZCk_f9jXVrCrvE_GBGvk3QJAYMOtvJ0XgsqrqG$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 40760181 38540060 37480085 37350163 38630209 40580283
    41050258 40760181=20

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