SUMMARY...A few supercells may develop through evening, from the
eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Tornadoes,
perhaps strong, and very large hail will be possible.
DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a front extending from northern
TX into southwest OK which is becoming more diffuse with heating.
This boundary separates a cooler/capped air mass over much of OK
from a destabilizing air mass over northwest TX and into the TX
Panhandle. Meanwhile, a dryline stretches from north to south across
the TX Panhandle and South Plains.
Visible satellite shows stable billow clouds north of the boundary,
but these are gradually eroding from south to north as temperatures
warm into the lower 80s F. A growing CU field is also evident over
northwest TX, where MLCAPE is in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Backed
surface winds on the cool side of the boundary are contributing to
100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per FDR VWP.
Although convergence is currently weak, it is expected to increase
around 00Z and into the evening as the dryline eventually pushes
east with the upper trough. A few more hours of air mass
modification will occur, including moistening. In addition, the
low-level jet will continue to increase to over 50 kt, further
Assuming a cell or two can form, they should quickly acquire
rotation, with tornadoes and hail likely. Any lone cells that can
maintain access to the warm side of the boundary will have the
potential for a strong tornado.
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