• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1840

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 12 20:14:37 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 122014
    SPC MCD 122014=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1840
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0314 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

    Areas affected...eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma

    Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely=20

    Valid 122014Z - 122245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...A few supercells may develop through evening, from the
    eastern Texas Panhandle into far western Oklahoma. Tornadoes,
    perhaps strong, and very large hail will be possible.

    DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a front extending from northern
    TX into southwest OK which is becoming more diffuse with heating.
    This boundary separates a cooler/capped air mass over much of OK
    from a destabilizing air mass over northwest TX and into the TX
    Panhandle. Meanwhile, a dryline stretches from north to south across
    the TX Panhandle and South Plains.

    Visible satellite shows stable billow clouds north of the boundary,
    but these are gradually eroding from south to north as temperatures
    warm into the lower 80s F. A growing CU field is also evident over
    northwest TX, where MLCAPE is in the 1500-2000 J/kg range. Backed
    surface winds on the cool side of the boundary are contributing to
    100-150 m2/s2 0-1 km SRH per FDR VWP.

    Although convergence is currently weak, it is expected to increase
    around 00Z and into the evening as the dryline eventually pushes
    east with the upper trough. A few more hours of air mass
    modification will occur, including moistening. In addition, the
    low-level jet will continue to increase to over 50 kt, further
    enhancing shear.

    Assuming a cell or two can form, they should quickly acquire
    rotation, with tornadoes and hail likely. Any lone cells that can
    maintain access to the warm side of the boundary will have the
    potential for a strong tornado.

    ..Jewell/Grams.. 10/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!swDhDpq3i4CJCC0TwQhBy94UpZnePE68wVwjUvf85954XfIbpKzkw0obuQ4Dm3v3A9civngO$=
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    LAT...LON 34959921 34639932 34139955 33929976 33760008 33720037
    33790060 33930069 34480088 35050125 35580118 35960072
    36389981 36319967 36279954 35749914 34959921=20

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