• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1838

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 12 19:30:08 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 121930
    SPC MCD 121929=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1838
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0229 PM CDT Tue Oct 12 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southwest Kansas into northwest
    Oklahoma and far northeast Texas Panhandle

    Concerning...Outlook upgrade=20

    Valid 121929Z - 122000Z

    SUMMARY...An upgrade to Category 4/Moderate risk will be introduced
    in the 20Z Day 1 Convective Outlook to reflect a greater risk for
    strong tornadoes.

    DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution/convection allowing model
    guidance consensus has been generally trending upward in the
    intensity and longevity of deep, moist convection over portions of
    the southern High Plains. Potential exists for multiple
    discrete/semi-discrete supercells to develop ahead of a Pacific
    front late this afternoon/evening. These storms are expected to
    progress eastward into an ambient environment characterized by very
    strong low-level shear, resulting in large, curved hodographs and
    effective SRH values exceeding 400 m2/s2, especially across portions
    of southwest KS/northwest OK/far northeast TX Panhandle. Here,
    potential exists for at least a few intense, cyclical tornadic
    supercells to develop, and a long-tracked tornado or two cannot be
    ruled out. As such, portions of the central Plains will be upgraded
    to Category 4/Moderate risk in the upcoming 20Z Day 1 Convective

    ..Squitieri/Grams.. 10/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!r_PCo55xQEaAi-YuOuZRCvITvlrwnG1_HmgiGYFxyq6XZSQDQGa4gRD_5u7dclkJ3b3PJ2tX$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 37820131 38210130 38260110 38130068 37789998 37409977
    36969957 36579950 36309955 36119968 35969986 35850027
    35900047 36520078 37820131=20

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