• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1837

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Tue Oct 12 01:21:34 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 120121
    SPC MCD 120120=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1837
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0820 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

    Areas affected...Western Lower MI...Eastern Upper MI...adjacent
    portions of Lake Michigan

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 120120Z - 120315Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...Locally damaging winds are possible tonight as storms
    spread northward.

    DISCUSSION...At 0115Z, a long-lived arc of thunderstorms with a
    history of wind damage is moving northward across western lower MI,
    with additional strong thunderstorms noted across eastern Lake
    Michigan and the adjacent lakeshore areas of northwest lower MI.
    Despite the onset of nocturnal cooling, seasonably warm/moist
    conditions are helping to maintain MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg
    downstream of ongoing convection across western lower MI and eastern
    portions of upper MI. Rather strong deep-layer southerly flow (as
    noted on 00Z APX sounding and recent APX/GRR VWPs) is helping to
    maintain effective shear of 30-40 kt, and an isolated damaging wind
    risk may persist tonight as convection spreads northward, especially
    with any persistent east-west oriented line segments.=20

    A gradual weakening trend is expected with time later tonight, and
    the overall threat appears too limited for watch issuance.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 10/12/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vp9SyL6g7ZBTnqASvAtDCErJ1F3jYOp47aTsfOm1Wq6-_bfNR9yk7ll_l0TdhiaIcRdoe_Vy$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43358654 44028660 45598573 46278506 46338434 46148396
    45628395 44188489 43188523 42958537 43078583 43248617

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