Mesoscale Discussion 1836
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0816 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021
Areas affected...northeast Illinois through northwest Indiana
Concerning...Tornado Watch 521...
Valid 120116Z - 120145Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 521 continues.
SUMMARY...While a strong wind gust or brief weak tornado cannot be
ruled out with low-topped band of convection moving through
northeast Illinois and northwest Indiana during the next hour.
Overall threat is becoming increasingly marginal. Remaining parts of
WW 251 will be allowed to expire at 02Z.
DISCUSSION...Overall trend has been for storms to weaken during the
past hour or so as they move northeast into air that has been
largely overturned by downstream convection developing along the
warm conveyor belt. A band of low-topped convection from the
southeast part of Chicago metro area into northwest Indiana might
remain capable of producing a strong wind gust during the next hour,
but the very marginal thermodynamic environment suggests the severe
threat should continue to wane.
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