• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1834

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 11 21:58:00 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112157
    SPC MCD 112157=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1834
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0457 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

    Areas affected...Northern IN into western lower MI

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 112157Z - 112330Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of locally damaging wind and perhaps
    a brief tornado will be possible into early evening.

    DISCUSSION...At 2145Z, a loosely organized thunderstorm cluster is
    moving across northwest IN. Several wind gusts of 50-60 mph have
    been noted with this cluster, along with a report of 1-inch hail.
    This activity is co-located with a rather strong low-level jet to
    the east of an occluding cyclone over western IL. While buoyancy
    decreases rapidly with eastward extent across IN, somewhat stronger
    heating and richer low-level moisture has allowed for moderate
    destabilization into western portions of lower MI, and ongoing
    convection may be sustained into early evening as it spreads north-northeastward. Largely unidirectional wind profiles will tend
    to favor line segments with locally damaging wind as the primary
    threat, though some backing of low-level winds is resulting in 0-1
    km SRH of 100-150 m2/s2, sufficient to support a brief tornado
    threat. If ongoing convection continues to show signs of
    organization, watch issuance is possible across northern IN and
    parts of lower MI.

    ..Dean/Guyer.. 10/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!sc5cxUxj3XqafAfFY1ghUj8COeJFzV0-GcFUX1z8kueoPAOfgEBwejja8KDnIa2u9-QpnBo5$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 42158540 40338615 40378616 40378687 41078676 42138669
    43738657 44078640 44088569 43928535 43668511 42848529

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