• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1833

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 11 20:38:04 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 112037
    SPC MCD 112037=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1833
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0337 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

    Areas affected...central and north-central IL

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 521...

    Valid 112037Z - 112200Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 521 continues.

    SUMMARY...The risk for wind damage and a couple of transient
    mesovortices capable of a short-lived/weak tornado, will probably
    maximize over the next 1-2 hours as a bowing squall line quickly
    moves northeastward across north-central IL.

    DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a maturing squall line in the
    vicinity of a surface low over west-central IL. The airmass over
    the northern third of IL is moist (mid 60s surface dewpoints) but
    clouds have tempered overall destabilization this afternoon.=20
    Nonetheless, weak buoyancy noted in RAP forecast soundings will aid
    in storm vigor as the squall line moves northeast across central and
    northwest IL through the early evening. The primary risk will be
    damaging gusts in association with surging areas of the squall line,
    but a short-lived tornado is possible with more intense
    eddies/mesovortices that become sustained as this activity moves
    across the I-74 and I-80 corridors during the next few hours. One
    limitation that may limit the overall severe risk is weaker shear
    evident at the Davenport, IA 88D VAD and this may limit the severe
    risk near the MS River.

    ..Smith.. 10/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!pWAhRo2ESSf_hujqXTGAPvnEdX-AxR0rfRSJretStZU0owq_pLvH063WEJjMEbg2SeRfQ-7p$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 41019014 41588921 41468861 41068849 39868988 41019014=20

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