Mesoscale Discussion 1833
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 PM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021
Areas affected...central and north-central IL
Concerning...Tornado Watch 521...
Valid 112037Z - 112200Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 521 continues.
SUMMARY...The risk for wind damage and a couple of transient
mesovortices capable of a short-lived/weak tornado, will probably
maximize over the next 1-2 hours as a bowing squall line quickly
moves northeastward across north-central IL.
DISCUSSION...Radar mosaic shows a maturing squall line in the
vicinity of a surface low over west-central IL. The airmass over
the northern third of IL is moist (mid 60s surface dewpoints) but
clouds have tempered overall destabilization this afternoon.=20
Nonetheless, weak buoyancy noted in RAP forecast soundings will aid
in storm vigor as the squall line moves northeast across central and
northwest IL through the early evening. The primary risk will be
damaging gusts in association with surging areas of the squall line,
but a short-lived tornado is possible with more intense
eddies/mesovortices that become sustained as this activity moves
across the I-74 and I-80 corridors during the next few hours. One
limitation that may limit the overall severe risk is weaker shear
evident at the Davenport, IA 88D VAD and this may limit the severe
risk near the MS River.
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