• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1831

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 11 14:06:30 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111406
    SPC MCD 111406=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1831
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0906 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

    Areas affected...eastern MO...western and central IL

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 111406Z - 111630Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Trends will be monitored this morning for surface-based
    thunderstorm development. The initial area of concern will be over
    central MO and areas northeastward towards the MS River. A tornado
    watch will likely be needed by midday for portions of eastern MO
    into western IL. It is uncertain whether surface-based storms and a
    subsequent tornado risk will develop as far north as extreme eastern

    DISCUSSION...Visible-satellite imagery shows a compact/intense
    mid-level shortwave trough over the lower MO Valley. Weak
    convection has been maintained this morning within the warm conveyer
    belt from southeast MO through the Saint Louis area and into western
    IL. A surface trough/windshift is analyzed this morning arcing from
    near the low through central and south-central MO. A small area of
    cloud breaks is noted in visible-satellite imagery over central MO
    where forcing is maximized and over the location of greatest concern
    this morning.

    Model forecast soundings show gradual destabilization this morning
    into the midday hours as temperatures slowly rise into the lower 70s
    with a moist boundary layer. Very strong low-level flow noted at
    the Saint Louis 88D VAD is resulting in a large low-level hodograph
    (400+ m2/s2 0-1 km SRH). Once sufficiently strong updrafts can develop/persist, a severe risk will likely ensue with an isolated
    risk for tornadoes and damaging winds being the primary concerns.

    ..Smith/Hart.. 10/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!spfMoQ05TgJQpywJzbCb_1DsnZL_E7Q3RYPaNDLTCY3Gmkeog5HWOplM1tMHqkCNRvG05jCh$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 38659231 39239227 40839106 41139028 41028944 40568880
    39668882 37748963 37789059 38409140 38659231=20

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