• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1830

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 11 10:00:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 111000
    SPC MCD 111000=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1830
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0500 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southwestern MO

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 111000Z - 111200Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

    SUMMARY...A threat for a brief tornado and isolated strong/gusty
    winds may continue for a couple more hours early this morning. Watch
    issuance is unlikely at this time.

    DISCUSSION...A low-topped line of convection has recently moved into
    parts of southwestern MO. A strong, 50+ kt low-level jet is present
    over this region. This low-level jet and a pronounced southwesterly
    mid-level jet associated with a shortwave trough ejecting from the
    southern Plains across the Ozarks are supporting strong low-level
    and deep-layer shear. One of the cells embedded within the
    low-topped line recently acquired low-level rotation, and a
    corresponding CC minimum in dual pol radar data from KSGF. Although
    the low-level shear remains rather favorable for continued storm
    organization in the short term across southwestern MO, the
    thermodynamic environment is much more marginal. A leading wave of
    convection has already moved across this region, with surface
    temperatures generally in the upper 60s. Weak boundary-layer
    instability should continue to limit updraft intensities,
    particularly as these storms move eastward and away from a narrow,
    maximized corridor of this instability characterized by MLCAPE
    around 500 J/kg. While a brief tornado and strong/gusty winds may
    continue to be a threat for the next couple of hours, the overall
    severe threat will probably remain too isolated to justify new watch
    issuance early this morning.

    ..Gleason/Edwards.. 10/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tMgyUTOyTobdOOULT4CdBclHUis00TxHm0C5YtC5l8HL8q6odwOkn4Gwg5MWm5L9d1xofjHc$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 37629426 37919437 38269393 38269310 37769260 37089279
    36539306 36539377 36829380 37309403 37629426=20

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