• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1828

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Mon Oct 11 05:58:57 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 110558
    SPC MCD 110558=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1828
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1258 AM CDT Mon Oct 11 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of east-central/northeast TX...far
    northwestern LA...extreme southeastern OK...and western AR

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 518...520...

    Valid 110558Z - 110730Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 518, 520 continues.

    SUMMARY...An isolated severe threat should continue in a narrow
    corridor early this morning. Downstream watch issuance is not

    DISCUSSION...Recent radar imagery shows a line of storms extending
    from parts of east-central TX into western AR early this morning. A
    fairly narrow corridor of weak to moderate boundary-layer
    instability is present along and just ahead of this ongoing
    convection per latest mesoanalysis. With strong low-level and
    deep-layer shear present over the confined warm sector, potential
    for storm organization will likely continue in the short term (next
    1-2 hours). Both damaging winds and perhaps a brief tornado remain a possibility given the strength of the low-level flow associated with
    a 35-45+ kt low-level jet. With time, these storms will encounter
    rapidly increasing convective inhibition across western/central AR, northwestern LA, and east TX. A corresponding decrease in intensity
    is expected to gradually occur. At this point, a downstream watch to
    the east of Tornado Watches 518/520 is not anticipated.

    ..Gleason.. 10/11/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uOTJRZ8y07cnSfj90TNmhMi7HFYaflsgx74LE0KgIAzN_hB8iE8uVccvolPpSU7blYVpUJxF$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 31029654 31579605 32309532 33699479 35269377 35159309
    34699337 33429350 32339355 31679392 30989616 31029654=20

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