Mesoscale Discussion 1825
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0811 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021
Areas affected...north Texas
Concerning...Tornado Watch 518...
Valid 110111Z - 110215Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 518 continues.
SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of strong winds, large hail, and
tornadoes will move east across the region this evening.
DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop and intensity along a
surging dryline across northwest Texas this evening. These
thunderstorms will be capable of producing very strong winds as
strong westerly low-level flow along and west of the dryline is
transported to the ground within thunderstorm downdrafts.
Additionally, ahead of the dryline, low-level theta-e and
instability will be maintained as the nocturnal low-level jet ramps
up and moisture slowly increases, yielding some hail threat.
Additionally, tornadoes cannot be ruled out within the advancing
squall line given the degree of low-level shear across the warm
sector, especially with any kinks that develop along the line. Thus,
despite the loss of diurnal heating, the severe potential will
increase through the evening across much of north Texas.
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