Mesoscale Discussion 1823
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021
Areas affected...Southwestern-Central Oklahoma
Concerning...Tornado Watch 516...
Valid 102332Z - 110130Z
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 516 continues.
SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will race northeast across
southwestern into central Oklahoma this evening, likely approaching
the southwestern Oklahoma City metro by 01z. Very strong winds and
hail are expected, along with tornadoes.
DISCUSSION...Leading edge of large-scale forcing for ascent is
spreading across western OK/northwestern TX early this evening. Deep
convection has finally responded to this forcing and is increasing
along the surging cold front, and south along the dry line.
Strongest supercell has developed immediately ahead of the surface
low over Kiowa County and this storm should mature into a larger
cluster as it propagates downstream into Caddo/northern Comanche
Counties. Very strong winds could ultimately evolve with this
complex if upscale growth continues; although in the short term,
very large hail is likely, along with the threat for tornadoes.
Leading edge of severe should surge into the western/southwestern
portions of the Oklahoma City metro by 01z.
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