• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1822

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 10 21:25:55 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102125
    SPC MCD 102125=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1822
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0425 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

    Areas affected...Southwest Oklahoma into western North Texas

    Concerning...Tornado Watch 517...

    Valid 102125Z - 102300Z

    The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 517 continues.

    SUMMARY...Initiation of discrete storms is becoming more likely in
    the vicinity of Frederick, OK within the next 1-1.5 hours. The
    threat for tornadoes is increasing in southwest Oklahoma into parts
    of central Oklahoma.

    DISCUSSION...Towering cumulus continues to develop south of
    Frederick, OK. The strongest pressure falls in the last few hours
    have occurred in this vicinity. Confidence is increasing in storm
    initiation within the next 1-1.5 hours. Given the backed surface
    winds and over 50 kts of effective shear, initial storm mode will
    likely be supercellular. KFDR VWP has begun to show an increase in
    low-level SRH recently as well. Storms that form in this region
    would pose the greatest tornado risk over the next few hours.

    ..Wendt.. 10/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!vI1EHXAwATg8YTHohdVWmNz6a-BqqlH_jxMp3-TDTGyaSOoDhlJsLy_v7D664n2v03ydUqOy$=
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    LAT...LON 33819849 33849879 33949902 34059910 34529892 34989844
    35259790 35289751 35069737 34389761 33819849=20

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