• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1821

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 10 20:46:58 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 102046
    SPC MCD 102046=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1821
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0346 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of western north Texas

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

    Valid 102046Z - 102245Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasing and intensifying thunderstorm development is
    possible across the Texas Big Country by 6-8 PM CDT, some of which
    will pose a risk for severe hail and wind, and perhaps a tornado or

    DISCUSSION...As larger-scale mid-level troughing continues east of
    the southern Rockies into the southern Great Plains late this
    afternoon through early evening, models suggest that mid-level
    forcing for ascent may gradually increase south of the Red River
    through much of western north Texas by 00-01Z. Strongest lift is
    expected to develop along the leading edge of stronger lower/mid
    tropospheric cold advection. It appears that this will surge
    southeast and east of the Texas Panhandle and South Plains, into the
    vicinity of the dryline over the Texas Big Country, before potential
    of substantive strengthening of convective development commences.

    The western edge of the deeper boundary-layer moisture currently
    appears just south and east of the Abilene vicinity into areas west
    of Wichita Falls, where mixed-layer CAPE is increasing in excess of
    1500 J/kg. Deep-layer shear is strong and already supportive of
    organized convective development, including supercells, with
    considerable further strengthening (to around 70 kt) of
    southwesterly flow around 500 mb forecast by early evening.=20
    Substantive further intensification of flow in the 850-700 mb layer,
    associated with southern Great Plains surface cyclogenesis, may not
    occur until later this evening. However, particularly given
    thermodynamic profiles including steep lower/mid tropospheric lapse
    rates, the environment still probably will be conducive to
    convection capable of producing severe hail and wind, with perhaps
    some risk for a tornado or two.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 10/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!v-gwgvCav9cpKVaAcpXq3Adm_gAbMg2dvex7hcTkRFR6VfHABZ1zTky_c9K9grhi21VJrnhH$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 33859921 33759772 31849871 31620028 32239984 33109975

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