• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1820

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 10 19:05:25 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 101905
    SPC MCD 101904=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1820
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0204 PM CDT Sun Oct 10 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of southwestern through north central
    Oklahoma and adjacent portions of northwest Texas and south central

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

    Valid 101904Z - 102100Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

    SUMMARY...Increasingly widespread and intensifying thunderstorm
    development appears probable in a corridor across southwestern
    through north central Oklahoma, including the Greater Oklahoma City
    area, as well as adjacent portions of northwest Texas and south
    central Kansas, by 5-7 PM. Some of this activity will pose a risk
    for severe hail initially, with increasing potential for a few
    tornadoes by early evening.

    DISCUSSION...A weak surface cold front has stalled south of Wichita,
    KS, south-southwestward into areas near/east of Childress, TX, where
    a surface low is beginning to form near the nose of a corridor of
    stronger boundary-layer heating and deeper mixing, beneath a plume
    of capping elevated mixed-layer air across the southern Great
    Plains. A dryline is becoming better defined east and south of the
    surface low, and boundary-layer moisture is gradually increasing
    along and ahead of the front to the northeast of the surface low.

    Due to the initially modest moisture relatively to the warmth of the
    elevated mixed-layer, latest objective analysis indicates that warm
    sector boundary-layer CAPE remains fairly weak (500-1000 J/kg).=20
    However, it appears that this will begin to substantively change
    during the next few hours, as the leading edge of mid-level forcing
    for ascent and cooling now overspreading the Texas Panhandle/South
    Plains progresses eastward.

    Weakening inhibition and increasing mixed-layer CAPE likely will
    coincide with strengthening deep-layer shear accompanying a 50-70+
    kt southwesterly 500 mb jet streak, contributing to an environment
    conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. It seems
    probable that this will include a rapidly upscale growing line of
    storms along/ahead of the front by early evening. However, initial
    storm development may include isolated to scattered discrete
    supercells, particularly in a possible cluster near/northeast of the
    surface low and dryline across southwestern Oklahoma.

    South-southwesterly flow in the 850-700 mb layer is initially rather
    modest, but forecast to strengthen to 30-40+ in the vicinity of the intensifying convective development, generally along the Interstate
    44 and 35 corridors (near and southwest through north of the
    Oklahoma City metropolitan area) by around 00-01Z. This will
    contribute to enlarging low-level hodographs supportive of
    strengthening low-level mesocyclones, posing a risk for tornadoes,
    in addition to severe hail.

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 10/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!qm15ajRzzFT5sjtTGFnoZTXdiMjfQ0-HnQAiV9CXR2a0qUX7pYbxtD4yFoMUt7i_2ZRllgg0$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 35069977 35839849 37299712 36439647 34669803 33959908
    34490009 35069977=20

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