• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1818

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 10 04:21:19 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100421
    SPC MCD 100420=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1818
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1120 PM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

    Areas affected...Southwestern-Central MN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515...

    Valid 100420Z - 100615Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 515

    SUMMARY...Strong convection will continue along a corridor from
    southwestern through central MN. Locally damaging winds are the
    primary risk for the next few hours.

    DISCUSSION...Earlier MCS that formed over eastern SD has advanced
    downstream and weakened somewhat as surface low is now lifting north
    across southeast ND. However, a southwest-northeast corridor of
    strong storms continues across MN, strongly influenced by low-level
    warm advection in association with 40-50kt LLJ. Latest
    satellite/radar data depict a well-defined upper vort over Hand
    County SD approaching the southwestern flank of MN convection. This
    feature will likely contribute to the maintenance of thunderstorm
    activity across the upper MS Valley during the pre-dawn hours. Given
    the observed shear within the warm advection zone, there is some
    concern for a few strong/locally severe storms. While this activity
    has not been particularly productive over the last few hours, some
    severe threat will linger due to the shear/forcing.

    ..Darrow.. 10/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!t-31xkcRXInOn5E47OOpNfu-9ruXXtwB-I6CeKFfKYmlaGSrswrU9nQ-bqDMA_mh_zdA88xP$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 44799657 45969529 46979464 47489399 46629345 45219427
    44539560 44799657=20

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