• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1817

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sun Oct 10 01:27:52 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 100127
    SPC MCD 100127=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1817
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0827 PM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

    Areas affected...Southeast ND...West-Central MN

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514...515...

    Valid 100127Z - 100300Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514, 515

    SUMMARY...Damaging winds will accompany a squall line as it races
    northeast this evening.

    DISCUSSION...Well-organized squall line has evolved and is surging
    northeast across the remainder of ww514 into the western portions of
    ww515. An MCV has evolved over the northwestern portion of a larger
    complex of storms over southeast ND, well north of the primary
    surface low. The apex of a larger bow is racing east-northeast
    across Douglas County MN, and should advance across Alexandria very
    shortly. Damaging winds in excess of 50-60kt is likely noted at
    times with this squall line. Strong low-level warm advection is
    focused across west-central/central MN this evening as 45kt LLJ is
    feeding this surging line. Current thinking is the squall line will
    continue to propagate across the remainder of ww515 over the next
    several hours, primarily affecting the northwestern two-thirds of
    the watch.

    ..Darrow.. 10/10/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!rV87JLY3BDMoUK-snNd0rDxZVHMDwSXvXxUKSRlZXa9lyMUXu8bN1OvvigO7czLoBkBUVhbN$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 46579713 47009579 46429448 45409503 45189617 45909627

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