• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1815

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 9 22:50:50 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092250
    SPC MCD 092250=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1815
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0550 PM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

    Areas affected...Portions of southwest and south-central South

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 092250Z - 092345Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Hail and gusty thunderstorm winds possible with strongest thunderstorms. A watch is not expected.

    DISCUSSION...Cold temperatures aloft associated with the core of an
    upper low moving into the northern Plains this evening resulted in most-unstable CAPE values greater than 1000 J/kg developing across
    southwest and south-central South Dakota, where an axis of surface
    temperatures into the mid 70s exists. Thunderstorms in this area
    pose a threat for strong, gusty thunderstorm winds and hail. The
    threat should diminish as the storms move east out of the better
    instability axis and as diurnal heating wanes.

    A watch is not expected.

    ..Marsh/Bunting.. 10/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!o2H67QEdUyZJGbkjgmUNitCpz-Qhi4DfX0ZVytOjqpxwaeQxrOLDcSAROCtH-0TK1Y2nzUx1$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 43810206 44560179 44860105 44610044 43990019 43460021
    43180054 43240162 43520200 43810206=20

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