• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1814

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 9 20:41:17 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 092041
    SPC MCD 092040=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1814
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0340 PM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

    Areas affected...Parts of east central/northeastern South Dakota

    Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514...

    Valid 092040Z - 092215Z

    The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 514

    SUMMARY...More rapid intensification of thunderstorms is probable
    through 4-6 PM CDT. This may include the evolution of one or two
    supercells gradually posing increasing potential to produce
    tornadoes, along a narrow corridor initially near or south of Huron
    into the Brookings/Watertown vicinity.

    DISCUSSION...Within a broader developing cluster of thunderstorms,
    strongest convection is currently focused near/northwest of Huron.=20
    This is near a slowly deepening lower/mid tropospheric cyclone, just
    to the north of a developing surface low now centered to the west
    northwest of Yankton. 20Z surface observations indicate 3-4 mb
    2-hourly surface pressure falls across much of southeastern South
    Dakota, as far north as the Huron and Brookings vicinities, which is
    now just south of where lower/mid tropospheric warm advection has
    become maximized.=20=20

    With the warm sector boundary layer becoming characterized by CAPE
    up to 1500 J/kg, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear,
    substantive further thunderstorm intensification seems likely
    through 22-00Z. This probably will include the evolution of
    supercell structures, particularly near the southern flank of the
    evolving convective system, with low-level hodographs gradually
    enlarging and becoming more conducive to the risk for a tornado or

    ..Kerr/Hart.. 10/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!s8xM9AqnNlNVT_ul96EUVEzRmeIeQGmWwrzd5032EMN9qUL2BCAhJcsr-nTuX1TLZ778JSu5$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 44849848 45179739 44979647 44279686 44159755 44049805
    44039859 44419840 44849848=20

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