• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1813

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Sat Oct 9 17:24:47 2021
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    ACUS11 KWNS 091724
    SPC MCD 091724=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1813
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    1224 PM CDT Sat Oct 09 2021

    Areas affected...portions of south Florida

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 091724Z - 091900Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms may produce isolated damaging wind
    gusts this afternoon. A weather watch is unlikely.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1715 UTC, widespread thunderstorms were
    developing across the southern tip of the Florida Peninsula in
    response to strong heating and lift along the backside of a weak
    trough across the southeast. Continued heating of a moisture airmass
    with dewpoints in the 70s F is support moderate destabilization with
    2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE across south Florida. Mid-level flow is not
    overly strong, but 20-30 kts of shear may support a few organized
    multi-cell clusters through the afternoon. As storms continue to
    develop and move southeast, they should gradually coalesce into
    several clusters. Stronger cold pools may support isolated instances
    of damaging winds.=20

    Overall severe coverage is expected to remain low, but widespread
    storms suggests some low-end damaging wind potential across much of
    south Florida this afternoon/evening. The relative greatest severe
    potential appears to be along the southeastern Coast within the next
    couple of hours with storms approaching from the northwest. However,
    overall confidence in severe coverage is low. Given the overall
    uncertainty, a watch is unlikely.

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 10/09/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!tvsC7ezIHTmA2Dbnda0qlmwvDXm-2uvDa8pjSVewLXrmEO6aErU27dg8FZLprBdcajrAByvF$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 27458029 26957986 26127990 25518004 25158031 24928058
    24918072 25848118 26708123 27268091 27458029=20

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