• MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 1811

    From COD Weather Processor@1:2320/105 to wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu on Fri Oct 8 18:53:41 2021
    This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

    Content-Type: text/plain
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: Quoted-printable

    ACUS11 KWNS 081853
    SPC MCD 081852=20

    Mesoscale Discussion 1811
    NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
    0152 PM CDT Fri Oct 08 2021

    Areas affected...portions of the northern Great Basin

    Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely=20

    Valid 081852Z - 082115Z

    Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

    SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorm beneath an upper trough may be
    capable of producing strong wind gusts or hail this afternoon and
    evening. Expected severe coverage will likely remain low enough that
    a watch will not be needed.

    DISCUSSION...As of 1900 UTC, regional radar and satellite imagery
    showed increasing thunderstorm coverage across portions of eastern
    NV and western UT. Located beneath a slow moving upper trough across
    portions of the Great Basin, these storms are ongoing in a cool but
    weakly unstable environment with SPC mesoanalysis showing between
    250-500 J/kg of MLCAPE. Regional model soundings show long straight
    line hodographs with bulk shear values of 35-50 kts. Despite the
    weak buoyancy, the favorable shear may support a few organized
    storms including a marginal supercell. Steep low and mid-level lapse
    rates from the cold pocket aloft may support a few stronger
    downdrafts and some hail potential into this evening.=20

    While uncertainty on the overall severe threat remains large,
    additional convective development appears likely over the next
    couple of hours in response to increasing forcing for ascent ahead
    of the trough and continued diurnal heating. Hi-res guidance shows
    scattered storms moving out of eastern NV into northwestern UT and
    southern ID late this afternoon and early this evening. Thus the
    potential for isolated damaging wind gusts or hail may linger into
    the evening before nocturnal inhibition limits the threat after

    ..Lyons/Hart.. 10/08/2021

    ...Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj= g!uixWaSrp3SLCJYRwFHFt8KuHDrLcsS9XmtVoOqss3PA2avvNjQuuXV3mPYHTR2CbBQ1b6m-P$=
    for graphic product...


    LAT...LON 39741532 41041533 42101473 42701390 43221243 42731136
    41681111 40391179 39801260 39291373 39171459 39741532=20

    Content-Type: text/plain; charset="US-ASCII"
    Content-Disposition: inline
    Content-Transfer-Encoding: 7BIT

    = = =
    To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. ------------=_1633719228-54005-63--

    --- SBBSecho 3.12-Linux
    * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)